Press Conference #1 : US and Iran Conflict Escalation after the Death of General Soleimani

Tuesday (01/14/2020), Institute of International Studies, Department of International Relations, Universitas Gadjah Mada (IIS UGM) held a press conference responding the issue of conflict escalation between the United States and Iran. The murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani by the US drone attack escalate the tension between the two countries. This raises fears of a war between the two countries, which could possibly trigger World War III. To analyze the possibility of the aforementioned war, there are several things to consider. On this occasion, IIS UGM invited Dr. Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro, Head of the Department of International Relations Universitas Gadjah Mada and Yunizar Adiputera, MA., Lecturer at the Department of International Relations Universitas Gadjah Mada.

The United States has a long history of involvement in the Middle East region due to Israel’s existence as the US’ closest ally. It is no secret that the US is the enemy of most Middle Eastern countries. On the other hand, Iran is one of the US enemies who aggressively continues to develop its strength, and in response US is always trying weaken and hinder the development of Iran. The killing of Soleimani can be interpreted as US latest effort, with the justification that Soleimani had the intention to attack several strategic targets in the US.

But in reality, the justification’s validity mentioned by the White House is still unproven. On the contrary, there are statements stating that Donald Trump carrying out the attack as a diversion of issues to reduce the burden on the US domestic affairs. One of them being Trump’s impeachment, as well as an effort to boost Trump’s popularity in the upcoming election. This tactic was also used by former US President, George H. Bush Sr. who intervened in the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. However, this strategy can turn against Trump if Trump’s political opponents use the economic issue as consideration in initiating war, whereas the condition of the US economy is actually not strong enough to support a war economy if the US declare war with Iran.

Can the US attack that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani be justified under International Law?

“It is difficult to justify (the attack). According to international law, the logic that has been built so far is only that (General Qasem Soleimani) is a terrorist, while according to international law, attacks can only be carried out on the basis of self-defense or if there is an imminent threat “

-Yunizar Adiputera, M.A, Lecturer in the Department of International Relations, Gadjah Mada University.-

In addition to the problems of US domestic affairs, there is a problem with the validity of attacks carried out against Soleimani under the international humanitarian law. An attack can only be justified as an act of self-defense or in response to an imminent threat. Trump said that this attack was a form of US self-defense against plans and acts of terrorism driven by Soleimani. It is difficult to justify the validity of the attack on Soleimani because until now, there has been no significant evidence of the threat brought by Qasem Soleimani. In addition, whether the attack are legal or not, the attack that killed Soleimani was also an unwise and unreasonable decision, because it could create a crisis and escalate conflict in the Middle East region.

Will the conflict between the two countries escalate so that it can trigger World War III?

“The United States and Iran both possess nuclear power, and if they fight, it will only create large-scale damage and the prospect of MAD (mutually assured destruction)”

-Dr. Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro, Head of the Department of International Relations, Gadjah Mada University –

For now, the possibility of World War III is considered by both interviewees as an unrealistic possibility due to several factors. First, the political situation is very different from the situation before World War I and II, where the majority of countries avoid open warfare and choose diplomacy. Second, the domestic factors of the two countries in conflict. On one hand, the US is affected by weak public support for war and also economies that are not ready for large-scale war, and on the other, Iran also has a military force far more inferior than the US, and the choice to declare war to US can lead to strategic blunders. Third, the prospect of mutually assured destruction that will occur because both the US and Iran both have nuclear weapons, which if used will only cause large-scale damage and harm both US and Iran along with other countries involved.

What can Indonesia do?

At the end of the session, the two speakers reminded of the significance of diplomacy in the modern era. DIHI and IIS UGM will always prioritize diplomacy and will not promote warfare as a solution. Although many parties consider the prestige of diplomacy to be less popular after several phenomena such as Brexit and Trump who prefer to use the power of the United States over diplomatic channels, in reality diplomacy has become more important than in previous eras. In this case, the Government of Indonesia can use diplomacy to prevent conflicts between the United States and Iran from escalating further.

Author: Raditya Bomantara

Editor: Denise Michelle